The UK's Post-Brexit Journey and Renewed EU Engagement
A decade has passed since the United Kingdom voted to depart from the European Union, a decision that ushered in a period of significant political upheaval for the UK. With seven prime ministers serving in the post-Brexit era, the nation has grappled with internal divisions and a seemingly cyclical debate regarding its economic relationship with Brussels. Sir Keir Starmer's recent resignation, following his government's initiative to 'reset' relations with the EU, has placed the onus on his successor to navigate these complex European ties.
From the EU's perspective, the initial shock of the UK's departure and subsequent political volatility has given way to a more accustomed view of British politics. While acknowledging the potential for instability to impede ongoing negotiations aimed at reducing post-Brexit bureaucracy and boosting the UK economy, Brussels anticipates these discussions will continue under the new leadership. A planned summit with the Starmer government in late July is currently under review.
Michel Barnier's Perspective on UK-EU Cooperation
Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator during the often-contentious Brexit talks, remains a prominent figure in French politics. In a recent interview, Barnier emphasized the EU's readiness to engage with whichever leader the UK puts forward. He recalled facing four different UK negotiators during the original Brexit discussions, underscoring the EU's adaptability to political shifts in Britain.
Barnier, known for his firm stance against 'cherry-picking' – the UK's desire to retain access to parts of the single market without adhering to its full obligations, such as free movement of people or financial contributions – reiterated this principle. He stressed that the single market is the EU's most valuable asset, particularly in today's turbulent global environment, and cannot be compromised to accommodate special deals for non-member states. He views the UK's departure from the single market as a 'lose-lose' situation for both parties.
External Pressures and Internal Challenges for the EU
The global landscape has dramatically transformed since the Brexit vote. Europe faces an unpredictable United States, a kinetic war in Ukraine instigated by Russia, and a hybrid war encompassing disinformation and sabotage across the continent. China also presents a significant challenge. Within the EU, mainstream opinion recognizes an existential threat from the rise of eurosceptic parties across many member states.
In this context, the potential for increased synergy with the UK, Europe's second-largest economy and a military power, is seen by some as potentially advantageous for the EU. While closer defense ties have been developing, the economic aspect remains a key area for consideration. However, Barnier, among others in EU circles, expresses concern that compromising the bloc's rules to offer attractive economic deals to non-members like the UK could embolden eurosceptic movements within the EU, potentially leading to calls for other countries to leave or weaken common regulations.
The Rise of Euroscepticism and the 2027 Elections
Michel Barnier draws parallels between the UK's Nigel Farage, a key figure in the Brexit campaign, and leaders of far-right eurosceptic parties across Europe, such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella in France. These figures, Barnier suggests, represent a threat to the EU's unity and foundational principles.
Fabrice Leggeri, an MEP for Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) party in France, is optimistic about the prospects for eurosceptic forces. He anticipates 2027 will be a pivotal year, particularly if the RN wins the French presidential elections. A French President holds significant influence over foreign policy, including EU affairs. Leggeri indicates that the RN aims for stricter non-EU migration policies, a rollback of environmental regulations deemed detrimental to European industry, and reduced French contributions to the EU budget. The party also opposes military aid to Ukraine.
The year 2027 is slated for major elections across Europe, and Leggeri hopes that like-minded eurosceptic parties will gain significant power in countries like Italy, Spain, and Poland, alongside France. He envisions these parties working together to transform the EU from within, or for a single powerful nation like France to exert significant influence, echoing the past actions of Hungary's Viktor Orban in frustrating common EU decisions.
The EU's Post-Brexit Resilience and Future Outlook
Despite earlier predictions of a 'domino effect' following Brexit, where other nations might follow the UK out of the EU, this has not materialized. German conservative MEP David McAllister suggests that EU voters witnessed the political and economic turmoil in the UK after the Brexit vote, leading them to conclude that leaving the bloc was not a desirable path.
A recent Pew Research Centre survey indicates that a decade after Brexit, 62% of respondents across the UK and seven EU member states now hold a positive view of the EU, compared to 49% a decade ago. This suggests that Brexit may have inadvertently strengthened EU unity. Armida van Rij of the Centre for European Reform notes reinvigorated efforts by numerous countries, including Ukraine, to join the EU.
While nationalist eurosceptic parties are gaining popularity within existing member states, and traditional European leaders face challenges, most Europeans, particularly after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, perceive safety in unity. They acknowledge the EU's imperfections but believe that sticking together is crucial in a turbulent world. Michel Barnier concludes that Brexit, as a topic, is now largely considered history, and the EU remains focused on preserving its assets and unity amidst ongoing internal and external pressures.
Source: A decade on from Brexit, the new PM has big calls to make on Europe