Pressure Mounts on Starmer After Makerfield Result
The recent by-election victory of Andy Burnham in Makerfield has ignited significant debate within the Labour Party regarding the future of its leadership. Messages from Labour MPs, spanning various factions and generations, indicate a widespread belief that Sir Keir Starmer's tenure as leader is nearing its end. These MPs, despite their diverse backgrounds, appear to be coalescing around the idea that a leadership change is inevitable.
Conversely, Sir Keir and his close allies contend that those advocating for his removal are misguided. They argue that internal strife within a governing party is precisely what the public sought to end by electing Labour. A document reportedly circulating among the Prime Minister's supporters highlights public perceptions of the previous governing party as 'only interested in themselves,' 'dishonest,' and 'divided,' cautioning Labour against falling into similar traps.
Anticipation of a 'Coronation'
Despite warnings against division, many Labour MPs seem united in their conviction that Andy Burnham's path to Downing Street is now assured. The term 'coronation' is increasingly being used to describe the anticipated leadership contest, suggesting that many believe Burnham will emerge as the sole viable candidate. This scenario envisions Burnham securing the necessary backing of 81 MPs, leading to his election by acclamation, akin to Gordon Brown's ascent to leadership in 2007.
However, the process is not without potential complications. Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary last month over disagreements with Sir Keir's leadership, has claimed to have the support of 81 MPs required to initiate a contest. While some colleagues express skepticism, Streeting may face pressure to align with Burnham to facilitate a smoother transition.
Starmer's Stance and Constitutional Realities
A significant factor complicating any 'coronation' is Sir Keir Starmer himself, who has reiterated his intention to be a candidate in any leadership election. Under Labour's rules, an incumbent leader does not need to meet the 81-MP threshold, automatically placing them on the ballot for party members. This commitment from Sir Keir guarantees a ballot of Labour members, irrespective of parliamentary support.
Nevertheless, the reality of the British political system dictates that a Prime Minister must command the confidence of a majority of Members of Parliament to govern effectively. The precedent of Boris Johnson's resignation in 2022, prompted by his inability to form a functioning government, underscores this constitutional principle. The central question now facing Sir Keir is whether he retains sufficient backing from his colleagues to continue leading the government. The coming days are expected to reveal the answer to this critical query.
Addressing Labour Party staff, the Prime Minister warned that a leadership election would 'tear apart our party and our movement.' Yet, if such a contest is triggered, Sir Keir will need to demonstrate that his desire for political survival is not the primary cause of any ensuing party disarray.
Source: Henry Zeffman: What does Keir Starmer do next after Andy Burnham's Makerfield win?