Extreme Heat Forecast Across the UK
The United Kingdom is preparing for what could be its warmest June day on record, with temperatures projected to exceed 35°C (95°F) on Tuesday. The heatwave is expected to intensify throughout the week, with some regions potentially reaching 40°C, just shy of the UK's all-time temperature high.
In response to the severe forecast, the Met Office and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) have issued rare red warnings for Wednesday and Thursday. These warnings cover areas in the Midlands, south-east Wales, and southern England, indicating a high likelihood of significant impacts on public health and infrastructure. Amber warnings are also in effect across a broader expanse of England and Wales, where temperatures are expected to reach the mid to high 30s.
Temperatures Set to Soar
Tuesday will see a noticeable increase in temperatures nationwide. Northern England and Wales are forecast to experience highs of 28 to 30°C. However, the Midlands, eastern, and southern England will widely see temperatures above 33°C, with some locations near the South Midlands and Greater London potentially peaking around 36 or 37°C. Should these predictions materialize, the current June temperature record of 35.6°C, set in 1976, would be comfortably surpassed. Scotland and Northern Ireland will also experience warmer conditions, with highs of 24 to 27°C on Tuesday due to sunnier weather.
The heatwave's intensity will further build across England and Wales, with the Met Office's red warning for extreme heat becoming active from 9 am on Wednesday until 9 pm on Thursday. Such red warnings are uncommon and are only issued in extraordinary circumstances, with the last instance occurring in July 2022 when the UK recorded its highest ever temperature of 40.3°C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire. With projections suggesting 40°C could be reached this week, that record may be at risk.
Health and Infrastructure Concerns
The UKHSA has also issued red heat health alerts for Wednesday and Thursday across the Midlands, eastern, and southern England. These alerts signify that severe impacts are anticipated across health and social care services, with an elevated risk to life for the general population. Heat health alerts are crucial for informing the health and social care sectors and emergency responders. Amber heat health alerts have been issued for Northern England for the same period.
High humidity is expected to accompany the soaring temperatures, making conditions feel more uncomfortable than previous heatwaves, including that of May and the notable July 2022 event. Increased humidity hinders the body's ability to cool itself through sweating, leading to greater heat retention and a higher risk of heat stress and heatstroke, particularly among vulnerable groups. Overnight temperatures are also expected to remain high, potentially setting new records, with lows unlikely to drop below 17 to 22°C. The current overnight record for the UK and England is 22.7°C (1976), and for Wales, it is 20.0°C (2023).
Echoes of 1976
This current heatwave draws comparisons to the memorable heatwave of June 1976. That year saw an extraordinary 15 consecutive days, from June 23 to July 7, where temperatures of 32.2°C (90°F) or higher were recorded somewhere in the UK. London Heathrow also experienced 16 consecutive days of 30°C (86°F) or more during that period.
Source: UK set for hottest June day on record as searing heat continues