Political Turmoil and Renewed EU Engagement in the UK
A decade following the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union, the country has experienced significant political upheaval, including a succession of seven prime ministers. The recent resignation of Sir Keir Starmer has once again brought the contentious debate over the UK's economic relationship with Brussels to the forefront of the domestic political agenda.
From the EU's perspective, the initial shock of the UK's post-Brexit political instability has given way to a certain familiarity with the dynamic nature of British politics. Despite this, the ongoing volatility raises questions about the continuity and effectiveness of new negotiations, which Starmer's government had initiated to reduce post-Brexit bureaucracy and stimulate the British economy. Brussels is currently assessing whether a planned summit with the former Starmer government in late July will proceed with the new leadership.
Michel Barnier's Perspective on UK-EU Relations
Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator during the initial Brexit talks and now a prominent figure in French politics, emphasized the EU's readiness to engage with any UK leadership. He recounted dealing with four different UK negotiators during the original Brexit discussions, highlighting the EU's adaptability to unstable political environments. Barnier maintains that the EU must respect the UK's position and work with its chosen representatives.
During the intense Brexit negotiations, Barnier was known for his firm stance against UK demands for a 'special deal' that would allow the UK to retain single market benefits without adhering to its core principles, such as free movement of people. This 'cherry-picking' approach, which Brussels consistently rejected a decade ago, appears to be resurfacing in current UK domestic discussions aimed at forging closer economic ties with the EU while limiting financial contributions and immigration.
The Evolving Geopolitical Landscape and EU Unity
The global context has dramatically shifted since the Brexit vote. Europe now faces an unpredictable United States, a kinetic war in Ukraine involving Russia, and a hybrid war extending across the continent. China's growing influence also adds to the complex geopolitical environment. Within the EU, there are concerns about existential threats posed by the rise of eurosceptic parties across many member states.
In this new landscape, some argue that closer synergy with the UK, Europe's second-largest economy and a military power, could be advantageous for the EU. While defense cooperation has already progressed, the economic dimension remains a key area of debate. Barnier reiterated his view that the UK's departure from the single market was a 'lose-lose' situation. He stressed that the single market is the EU's most valuable asset, and in these challenging times, Brussels cannot compromise its integrity to accommodate special deals for non-members like the UK. He warned against actions that could 'unravel or fragilise the single market' due to the increased global instability.
Internal EU Challenges and the Rise of Euroscepticism
Barnier also highlighted the internal threats to the EU, drawing parallels between figures like Nigel Farage in the UK and eurosceptic leaders such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella in France. He expressed concern that compromising EU rules for non-member states could inadvertently strengthen these eurosceptic parties, encouraging calls for national exits or a weakening of common regulations.
Fabrice Leggeri, an MEP for Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) Party, confirmed this sentiment, expressing confidence that 2027 could be a pivotal year for eurosceptic movements if his party wins the French presidential elections. The RN aims for tougher non-EU migration policies, a rollback of green regulations, reduced contributions to the EU budget, and opposition to military aid for Ukraine. With major elections scheduled across Europe in 2027, Leggeri hopes that like-minded eurosceptic parties will gain significant influence in countries such as Italy, Spain, and Poland, allowing them to 'change the EU from the inside.'
Brexit's Unintended Consequence: Strengthening EU Unity?
Despite early predictions of a 'domino effect' where other countries would follow the UK out of the EU, this did not materialize. According to German conservative MEP David McAllister, EU voters observed the UK's post-Brexit crises and the arduous negotiations, concluding that leaving the bloc was not a desirable path. A recent Pew Research Centre survey supports this, indicating that a decade after Brexit, 62% of respondents across the UK and seven EU member states now hold a positive view of the EU, an increase from 49% ten years prior. This suggests that Brexit, while straining UK unity, may have inadvertently fostered greater cohesion within the EU.
Armida van Rij of the Centre for European Reform notes renewed efforts by several countries, particularly Ukraine, to join the EU. While nationalist eurosceptic parties continue to gain popularity within existing member states, many Europeans, especially after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, perceive safety in unity and prefer to stick together in an increasingly turbulent world.
Source: A decade on from Brexit, the new PM has big calls to make on Europe