Andy Burnham's Exceptional By-Election Performance
Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University has characterized Andy Burnham's recent victory in the Makerfield by-election as a notable personal achievement. This success stands in contrast to Labour's performance in other recent by-elections, where the party experienced significant declines in support.
For instance, Labour's vote share decreased by 14 points in the Runcorn by-election last year and by 25 points in Gorton & Denton just four months prior. Furthermore, in the local elections on May 7, Labour trailed Reform by 20 points in Makerfield itself. Despite the general trend of governing parties losing support in by-elections, Burnham not only maintained Labour's 45% vote share from 2024 but increased it by 10 points.
This outcome is particularly striking given Labour's consistent national poll ratings of around 19% since last autumn, indicating no broad surge in the party's popularity. This is further underscored by Labour's substantial vote reductions in two Scottish by-elections held concurrently: a 19-point drop in Aberdeen South and an 18-point decline in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Campaign polling in Makerfield suggested that the outcome would have been considerably different had Burnham not been the Labour candidate.
Factors Behind Burnham's Success
Burnham's triumph appears to be built on two primary factors. Firstly, he successfully re-engaged many voters who supported Labour in 2024. Weekend polls indicated that approximately four out of five Labour voters from two years ago cast their ballots for Burnham, a stark difference from national polls suggesting only just over half of 2024 Labour voters are currently inclined to support the party again.
Secondly, Burnham seemingly benefited from a significant squeeze on the Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Green parties. Collectively, these parties secured only 3% of the vote, a 19-point decrease from 2024. The Liberal Democrats' 0.4% represented their poorest-ever by-election showing, while the Conservatives' 2.2% was only marginally better than their all-time low of 1.9% in Gorton and Denton. These shifts were likely driven by a combination of tactical voting against Reform, a desire to influence the prime minister's position, and an appeal to Burnham's personal style and record as Greater Manchester mayor.
Reform UK and the Emergence of Restore Britain
Makerfield was considered a prime target for Reform UK, given its strong concentration of pro-Brexit voters (two-thirds of the electorate voted Leave in the referendum). However, Reform's support increased by only three points from 2024, falling short of the 21-point rise in Runcorn, the 15-point increase in Gorton and Denton, and their current 12-point national poll average. This result is likely a significant setback for Nigel Farage.
Adding to the complexity, the by-election saw the emergence of Restore Britain, a new party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, advocating for a stricter stance on migration. Restore Britain, which secured 7% of the vote, was one of only three parties to retain its deposit. The extent to which Restore's support might have otherwise gone to Reform is unclear, but the emergence of a competitor for pro-Brexit, socially conservative voters, currently polling at 3% nationally, is an unwelcome development for Farage.
Conservative Surge in Aberdeen South
In contrast to Makerfield, the Conservative party saw a substantial increase in support in Aberdeen South. In a city grappling with economic challenges after its oil boom, the Conservatives framed the by-election as a referendum on the net-zero policies of both the UK and Scottish governments. This strategy resulted in a 25-point increase in their vote share, a post-war by-election record for the party and their first by-election gain in Scotland since 1967.
The outcomes of these by-elections are expected to have lasting repercussions in Westminster. A challenge to Sir Keir Starmer's leadership now appears more likely, and the government's energy policy could face intensified scrutiny and political debate.
Source: Sir John Curtice: Burnham's win represents remarkable personal success for him