Thousands Dead as US-Israeli-Iran Conflict Concludes, True Toll Disputed
A recent conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, which commenced in February, has officially concluded with a newly agreed peace deal. Official reports from Iran and Lebanon state that over 7,300 individuals have lost their lives in these two nations since February 28. This grim total includes numerous children and healthcare professionals, with additional fatalities reported across the broader Middle East region.
However, analysts and experts from BBC Verify suggest that these figures are almost certainly an underestimation. They point to several factors hindering accurate reporting, including internet and media restrictions, government suppression of information, and the presence of armed groups in certain areas, which contribute to unreliable data.
Dr. Iain Overton, executive director of the UK-based charity Action on Armed Violence, noted that the multi-country nature of the conflict means casualty figures are "often incomplete, delayed or impossible to independently verify." He anticipates that "the final death toll will likely remain contested" for years following the cessation of hostilities.
Casualties in Iran
By mid-April, official Iranian government statistics reported at least 3,468 deaths in Iran, including 499 women, since the onset of US and Israeli strikes. This figure comprises 1,460 civilians and 2,008 military personnel, according to a report by the state news agency IRNA on April 26.
In contrast, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) presented a higher count, documenting 3,636 deaths by May 18. HRANA's figures include 1,701 civilians (307 of whom were children), 1,221 military personnel, and 714 individuals whose status could not be confirmed. The organization stressed that their documented figures should be considered "absolute minimums," citing severe limitations on information gathering due to access difficulties, government-imposed internet blackouts, and political repression.
Skylar Thompson, HRANA's deputy director, stated, "Authorities routinely withhold information about casualties, and families may face pressure not to speak publicly about the circumstances of a death."
Iranian authorities have accused the US and Israel of targeting civilian infrastructure. Investigations have indicated that a US missile strike on the first day of the conflict hit a school in Minab, reportedly killing 168 people, including 110 children. The US military is currently investigating this incident.
Days later, Iranian authorities reported 20 fatalities when a missile struck a sports hall during a girls' volleyball match in Lamerd. While the US denied responsibility, experts told BBC Verify that a US-made Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) was likely used in the attack.
The Situation in Lebanon
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah reignited on March 2 following Hezbollah's rocket attacks on Israel, launched in retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader. Israel responded with air strikes and a ground invasion in southern Lebanon.
Lebanese health authorities have since confirmed 3,912 deaths from Israeli attacks, including 366 women and 247 children. The number of Hezbollah fighters among these casualties is not specified. While Hezbollah has not released its own figures, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed last month that 3,000 Hezbollah fighters had been killed since the war's commencement.
Early March saw 41 fatalities in a major Israeli air and ground operation in the eastern Bekaa Valley, according to the Lebanese health ministry. The IDF stated its troops were recovering remains of an Israeli airman missing for 40 years, but Lebanese officials reported three of its troops, along with civilians and children, were killed.
On April 8, a massive wave of Israeli strikes reportedly killed at least 361 people within a 10-minute period, according to Lebanese authorities. The IDF claimed it targeted 250 Hezbollah operatives that day, but Lebanon's health ministry disputed this, asserting that most of those killed were civilians. The United Nations also reported that seven of its peacekeepers have died in Lebanon, with the most recent fatality occurring on June 4.
The Israeli campaign has drawn considerable criticism for its high civilian casualty count. US President Donald Trump, speaking at the G7 summit in Paris, sharply criticized the IDF's conduct, stating that "too many people have been killed" by the strikes. He remarked, "You don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody, because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses, and they're not all Hezbollah."
Impact on Israel
Israeli authorities have reported 60 deaths, primarily from Iranian attacks and clashes with Hezbollah. Government figures provided to the BBC indicate 29 civilian deaths, 21 of which were due to Iranian missile strikes. Another 31 were IDF soldiers killed in combat, with one additional death attributed to accidental friendly fire.
Israel has frequently accused Iran of using cluster munitions against its population centers. In one incident, the IDF reported that a couple in their 70s were killed by bomblets from a cluster bomb while seeking shelter in Ramat Gan.
In March, Human Rights Watch (HRW) accused Tehran of committing war crimes by targeting civilian areas with cluster munitions. Patrick Thompson, a crisis, conflict, and arms researcher with HRW, stated, "Cluster munition bomblets are dispersed over a wide area, making them unlawfully indiscriminate in violation of the laws of war."
Wider Regional Casualties
Iran's initial response to US-Israeli strikes also included attacks on neighboring Arab states hosting US bases. Iranian forces launched ballistic missiles and explosive drones, hitting various civilian locations, including airports, energy facilities, and ports. Falling debris from interceptions also impacted residential areas.
BBC Verify has documented attacks on military bases in eight countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain, and Oman. These strikes have elicited strong condemnation from Iran's neighbors.
Dr. Anwar Gargash, an adviser to the UAE's president, posted on X: "Your war is not with your neighbours, and through this escalation, you confirm the narrative of those who see Iran as the region's primary source of danger."
Compiling a definitive regional death toll is challenging, as not all states have released cumulative figures. However, official statements and media reports have recorded deaths in most Gulf states, including 13 in the UAE, according to its defense ministry. In Iraq, over 100 people have died, with at least 80 reported to be members of the Iran-backed Shia militias within the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), killed in US and Israeli strikes, as gathered by Al Jazeera and Agence France Presse.
Additionally, 13 US military personnel stationed in the Middle East have been killed, with seven fatalities attributed to Iranian attacks and six in a refuelling plane crash in Iraq, according to the Pentagon. The International Maritime Organisation reported 14 sailors of various nationalities died in strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and other Middle Eastern locations.
Dr. Overton reiterated that "access restrictions, damaged infrastructure and political sensitivities" in parts of the Middle East have hampered reporting and, in some cases, suppressed casualty numbers entirely. He concluded, "Experience from conflicts in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere suggests that the final death toll will likely remain contested and could prove substantially higher than the numbers currently available."
Source: Thousands killed in US-Israeli war on Iran - but experts say true total may never be known