Abiy Ahmed's Party Dominates Ethiopian Elections
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party has achieved a decisive victory in the country's recent general election, securing an overwhelming majority in parliament. With 438 out of 501 seats declared, Abiy Ahmed is set to begin another term in early October. This outcome is viewed positively by his supporters, who anticipate continued economic progress under his leadership.
However, the election was marked by significant challenges, including ongoing conflict, accusations of political repression, and limited participation from opposition parties. Concerns are escalating that Ethiopia's internal divisions and security issues could worsen during Abiy Ahmed's next tenure.
Background and Current Instability
Abiy Ahmed initially rose to power in 2018 amidst anti-government protests and was initially praised for his efforts to foster national unity. He received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his role in resolving hostilities with neighboring Eritrea. Despite these earlier achievements, security experts are now warning of a potential return to widespread conflict, particularly given the persistent insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromia regions.
On election day, 143 polling stations in the two most populous regions were unable to open due to security threats from armed groups, including the Fano militias in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia. Both groups advocate for greater autonomy and rejected the election results.
Tigray Region's Exclusion and Escalating Tensions
The situation in the Tigray region, still recovering from a two-year civil war that concluded in 2022, remains highly precarious. The region, with its six million inhabitants across 36 constituencies, was entirely excluded from the recent polls. There are growing fears of renewed hostilities, especially as relations between the Ethiopian government and Eritrea have deteriorated sharply since the end of the Tigray war.
During the civil war, Eritrean troops allied with Ethiopian government forces and faced accusations of atrocities against Tigrayan civilians, which they denied. Now, in a significant shift, Eritrea has aligned itself with Tigrayan leaders. This realignment suggests that if a new conflict erupts, Eritrea would likely support Tigrayan forces.
Regional Dynamics and Accusations
Ethiopia has also been implicated in the ongoing civil war in Sudan, with multiple reports alleging support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), an accusation Addis Ababa has consistently denied. Conversely, Eritrea and Tigrayan forces are believed to have close ties with the Sudanese military, which is opposing the RSF. This complex web of alliances and accusations creates a volatile regional environment.
The peace agreement signed in November 2022 was intended to resolve the animosity between Abiy Ahmed's government and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF). However, both sides now accuse each other of violating the terms of the agreement. The previous conflict in Tigray was one of the deadliest of the century, with estimates of 600,000 deaths and the region facing famine, compounded by allegations of blocked food aid by the government.
"The risks are real and are driven by both sides," remarked Cameron Hudson, an Africa analyst and former US State Department official, to the BBC.
Prior to the election, the TPLF reinstated its pre-war administration, replacing the interim government appointed by Prime Minister Abiy. Hudson suggests that the Tigrayans bear responsibility for the escalating tensions, citing actions and statements that indicate preparations for renewed fighting. Reports also suggest forced recruitment of young men into TPLF forces, though local authorities deny this, stating youths are undergoing training for self-defense.
However, Hudson also attributes some of the TPLF's actions to Abiy, who he claims has "moved away from the agreement and made threatening moves towards the Tigrayans."
International Response and Future Outlook
The European Union has called for an "immediate de-escalation" in northern Ethiopia, while the US, a key facilitator of the 2022 peace deal, recently imposed targeted visa restrictions on "hardline members of the TPLF and their immediate family members" for undermining efforts to resolve the crisis.
Magnus Taylor, a Horn of Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes an immediate return to full-scale war is unlikely but describes the ongoing low-level tension as a "dangerous scenario." He warns that the highly polarized regional politics, where Addis Ababa views the TPLF as siding with its enemies, increases the risk of the conflict escalating into a broader regional confrontation centered on Tigray.
Shewit Wudassie, an opposition politician in Tigray, attributes the problem to the stubbornness of both sides and their unwillingness to negotiate differences, suggesting they may be waiting for an opportune moment to assert power, which could lead to renewed fighting. According to Hudson, the coming months will be crucial in determining Ethiopia's future, with concerns that Abiy might use his consolidated power to definitively address the conflict in Tigray.
Source: Nobel Peace Prize winner triumphs at Ethiopian polls but fears grow of new conflict