Residents Return Cautiously to Southern Lebanon
Following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, families who had been displaced by the recent conflict began to return to their homes in southern Lebanon. This movement occurred despite official warnings about the ongoing safety risks. A widely circulated video depicted some returning residents encountering an Israeli armored vehicle obstructing a village street.
After more than three months of intense fighting, the people of Lebanon had hoped the truce would extend to the clashes between Israel and the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah. A fragile calm appears to be largely holding, although both Israel and Hezbollah have reportedly conducted attacks in the past day. Many remain skeptical that this lull signifies a definitive end to the conflict.
Abo Ali, displaced from Jebchit in the Nabatieh area, expressed his family's cautious return, stating, "All of this can be compensated for, and rebuilt," as he surveyed heavily damaged buildings. Moustafa, returning to Aadshit near Marjayoun with only a suitcase, described the sight of destruction as "extremely hard" for someone deeply familiar with the area. He too expressed distrust, adding, "Israel can't be trusted."
Ambiguity Surrounds US-Iran Agreement's Application to Lebanon
The specifics of the US-Iran agreement have not yet been made public, leaving the extent of its application to Lebanon unclear. Both Iran and Pakistan, which mediated the talks, confirmed that the deal includes a ceasefire in Lebanon – a key demand from Iran during negotiations. This round of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah began in March after Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel, retaliating for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei amidst the broader US-Israel conflict with Iran. Israel responded with extensive bombing campaigns across Lebanon and another invasion of its southern regions.
For Iran, the inclusion of Lebanon in the truce was vital for bolstering its standing among Hezbollah supporters, who have suffered significantly from the conflict, and for reinforcing Tehran's influence domestically. Iran has provided financing, training, and weaponry to Hezbollah since its inception in the 1980s. Despite facing setbacks in recent conflicts with Israel, Hezbollah, which also functions as a political party and provides social services, maintains substantial support within Lebanon's Shia Muslim community.
Israel had initially argued that its conflict with Hezbollah was separate from the one in Iran and should continue. However, under pressure from the US, Israel may find itself compelled to scale down or halt its military campaign.
Humanitarian Impact and Lingering Questions
The war has had a devastating impact on Lebanon. According to the country's health ministry, over 3,800 people have been killed, including numerous women and children, though figures do not differentiate between combatants and civilians. The Israeli military claims to have killed over 2,500 Hezbollah operatives, while Israeli authorities report 30 Israeli soldiers and four civilians killed on both sides of the border. One million people remain displaced across Lebanon, predominantly Shia Muslims, many of whom may not be able to return home even with a ceasefire.
The truce leaves several critical questions unanswered. Approximately 5% of Lebanese territory remains under Israeli occupation, with no indication of withdrawal. Dozens of villages have been destroyed, and the timeline and funding for reconstruction are uncertain. Israeli authorities have stated their intention to establish a 'security zone' along the border, free of Hezbollah, to protect northern Israeli communities from rockets and drones. Following the US-Iran truce announcement, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz affirmed that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in seized Lebanese territory.
Another significant issue is the future of Hezbollah's arsenal. The Lebanese government had attempted to separate the conflict in Lebanon from the broader US-Iran tensions, aiming to curb Iranian influence and further isolate Hezbollah. Critics have long accused Hezbollah of drawing Lebanon into unnecessary conflicts with Israel, arguing that it serves Iranian interests, and see this as an opportunity for disarmament. However, Hezbollah has currently rejected discussions about its weapons. Lebanese authorities maintain that disarmament can only be achieved through diplomatic means, a prospect that seems distant.
Lebanese citizens have reasons for skepticism. Two previous ceasefire announcements in the country failed to halt the war. Furthermore, the agreement that ended the last conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024 did not bring lasting peace, with Israel continuing to target alleged Hezbollah sites almost daily. This time, however, Hezbollah has stated it will not accept what Israel terms 'freedom of action,' and Iranian pressure might alter Israel's calculations. Nevertheless, concerns persist that once global attention shifts, the cycle of conflict could resume.
Source: Fragile quiet in Lebanon as US-Iran truce leaves unanswered questions