Overview of Starmer's Time in Office
Sir Keir Starmer's tenure as prime minister, which commenced in July 2024, concluded with his resignation following a loss of confidence from his parliamentary colleagues and Cabinet members. An evaluation of his government's performance across critical sectors, from economic growth to social policies, offers insights into the challenges and achievements of his time at Downing Street.
Public Popularity Decline
Starmer's public approval ratings saw a significant downturn during his premiership. A YouGov poll conducted in August 2024, just one month into his term, indicated a net popularity rating of minus 7, with 36% approving and 43% disapproving. By the time of his resignation, this figure had plummeted to minus 56, with only 18% expressing approval against 74% disapproval. Ipsos polling further suggested that his personal ratings fell below those of recent predecessors, including Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May.
Economic Growth Trends
A central pledge of the Labour manifesto was to achieve the highest sustained economic growth among G7 nations. Data from the OECD indicates that the UK economy grew by 2.3% between the second quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2026. This performance outpaced most G7 countries, with the exception of the US, which grew by 3.7% over the same period. Notably, the UK recorded the fastest growth among G7 nations in the first quarter of 2026, expanding by 0.6%.
However, this positive trend is not projected to endure. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a deceleration in UK GDP growth to 0.8% for the entirety of 2026, falling behind predictions for the US (2.3%), Canada (1.5%), and France (0.9%), partly due to global energy shocks stemming from the US-Iran conflict. Weaker growth for the UK compared to the US and Canada is also anticipated for 2027.
Changes in Immigration
Despite Sir Keir's commitment to tackling illegal Channel crossings, these continued throughout his premiership. The total number of crossings under his government surpassed 200,000 since 2018, with last year's figures being the second highest after the 2022 peak. Nevertheless, there was a notable slowdown in the rate of arrivals, with crossings detected in 2026 down 41% compared to the same period in 2025.
Overall, both total immigration and net migration (the difference between immigration and emigration) experienced significant reductions under Labour. Official estimates for 2025 showed net migration at 171,000, a 48% decrease from the previous year and a substantial drop from the peak annual rate of 944,000 recorded in 2023 under the Conservative government.
NHS Waiting List Reductions
A key health pledge was to ensure 92% of patients in England would be seen within 18 weeks by the end of the parliamentary term. As of April 2026, official data indicated that 65% of patients were seen within this timeframe, an improvement from 58.9% in June 2024, just before Labour took office. The total number of patients waiting for treatment in England decreased by 400,000, from 7.62 million in June 2024 to 7.22 million in April 2026.
Increase in Energy Bills
Contrary to Labour's promise to reduce average household energy bills by over £300, bills actually increased. The domestic energy price cap set by Ofgem for summer 2026 reached an annual rate of £1,862 for a typical household. This represents an increase of nearly £300 from the £1,568 price cap in place during summer 2024, which Labour inherited, partly influenced by global events such as the Iran conflict.
Rising Benefit Spending
Sir Keir's efforts to control the rising working-age welfare bill faced resistance and ultimately led to a retreat in June 2025. Forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) project the total UK welfare bill, including the state pension, to rise from 10.7% of UK GDP in 2024-25 to 11.1% by 2029-30. A primary driver of this increase is expected to be health and disability welfare payments for working-age adults, particularly through more grants of Personal Independence Payments (PIP), with this bill forecast to grow from £58.2 billion in 2024-25 to £78.1 billion in 2029-30.
Additionally, legislation to remove the two-child limit on Universal Credit was passed, with an official impact assessment suggesting this would result in 450,000 fewer children in relative poverty (after housing costs) by the end of the Parliament than would otherwise have been the case.