Understanding the Latest Iran Deal
A new agreement between the United States and Iran, formalized by President Donald Trump, seeks to de-escalate a conflict that began on February 28 with air strikes launched by the US and Israel against Tehran. This Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has drawn scrutiny for its provisions and omissions, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear program, economic sanctions, and access to the Strait of Hormuz.
Observers are naturally comparing this deal to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an Obama-era nuclear accord that Trump abandoned during his first term. To clarify the implications of the current MoU, an analysis has been conducted, examining key aspects across three distinct periods: the operational phase of the JCPOA (2016-2018), the period immediately preceding the conflict (before February 28, 2026), and the present following the MoU's signing.
Nuclear Program and Weaponry
The JCPOA, which included the UK, France, the EU, China, and Russia, was designed to place specific restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities. This detailed agreement limited Iran's enriched uranium stockpile to 300kg and capped enrichment levels at 3.67% for 15 years—a level suitable for electricity generation but insufficient for nuclear warheads. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was granted access to verify compliance, which it confirmed until the US withdrew from the deal in 2018.
Following the JCPOA's collapse, Iran escalated its nuclear program. By the start of the conflict on February 28, 2026, US officials reported Iran possessed approximately 440kg of uranium enriched to 60%, a level that can be quickly further enriched to weapons-grade. While the new MoU states Iran "reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons," it offers limited specific details on this commitment. Similar language existed in the JCPOA. The MoU also indicates an agreement to "discuss the issue of enrichment" and to "resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon," suggesting these points will be addressed in future negotiations.
Despite recent statements from President Trump about the destruction of Iran's remaining nuclear material, the MoU itself does not explicitly mention this. It is crucial to note that the JCPOA was a comprehensive, two-year negotiation resulting in a final agreement, whereas the MoU is a framework for 60 days of talks, making direct comparisons challenging. Furthermore, while Trump had previously emphasized destroying Iran's missile capabilities, the MoU makes no mention of Iran's ballistic missiles. In fact, Trump recently suggested it would be "unfair" for Iran not to possess such missiles given their presence in other regional countries.
Economic Sanctions and Relief
The 2015 JCPOA did not involve direct payments to Iran but provided significant sanctions relief, restoring Iran's access to frozen assets, including those of its central bank, estimated to be between $100 billion and $125 billion, with around $50 billion becoming immediately accessible. After the US exited the JCPOA, economic sanctions were reimposed and intensified, leading to severe economic hardship in Iran, which contributed to widespread protests in January.
US sanctions on Iranian oil severely hampered its overseas sales, though Iran utilized a "shadow fleet" of tankers to circumvent some restrictions. The new MoU, however, outlines that the US will "terminate all types of sanctions" against Iran on an agreed schedule. Significantly, it allows for immediate waivers after signing, permitting "the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives and all associated services including banking, transactions, insurances, transportation." This provision, without immediate conditions on Iran, appears to place the country in a more favorable economic position than before the conflict. Additionally, the memorandum states that the US, with "regional partners," will develop a plan funded with "at least $300bn" for Iran's "reconstruction and development."
Maritime Access in the Strait of Hormuz
Before the recent conflict, the Strait of Hormuz saw uninterrupted passage for ships carrying oil, natural gas, and fertilizer, and was not mentioned in the JCPOA. Ship-tracking data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated an average of 94 merchant ship transits daily in 2025.
Since the conflict began on February 28, this daily average plummeted to just six, although some vessels have transited with location transmitters off, suggesting the true figure is somewhat higher. This reduction was attributed to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. The MoU stipulates that the US will "fully end" its naval blockade within 30 days. Iran, in turn, commits to making "arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge" through the Strait of Hormuz, but this provision is limited to "60 days only." Afterward, Iran is to "conduct dialogue" with Oman to define the "future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz."
On May 21, Iran announced the unilateral establishment of a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to regulate shipping. Reports indicate that while there will be no "transit tolls," there will be "fees" for using the strait, charged "in exchange for the services that are provided." The current deal and White House commentary do not address preventing Iran from imposing these future fees, which could bolster Iran's economic power and regional influence compared to the pre-war situation.
Source: Weapons, money and ships: How is this Iran deal different from others?