Limited Passage Through Crucial Waterway
Following a recent announcement by President Donald Trump regarding a US-Iran deal and the declared “opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, shipping activity through the critical passage remains significantly low. While President Trump urged global shipping to resume, analysis of MarineTraffic data by BBC Verify indicates only seven vessels have transited the strait since the deal, with approximately 580 ships still awaiting passage in the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies, was effectively closed by Tehran after US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Experts point to three primary factors impeding the return of normal maritime traffic: security concerns, the threat of mines, and the potential imposition of new tolls.
Currently, over 250 tankers and more than 330 cargo ships are located within the Gulf, with around 75% of the tankers stationary, many near major oil export terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. Trade analytics firm Kpler's senior oil analyst, Naveen Das, suggests that an initial indicator of renewed traffic would be an exodus of these 'trapped' vessels, which has not yet occurred.
1. Security and Safety Concerns Persist
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still considered a high-risk endeavor. Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group noted the extreme bravery required for captains to navigate the strait given the current situation. Since late February, Iran has reportedly fired upon ships attempting passage without permission. Concurrently, the US imposed its own naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 13, disabling several 'non-compliant vessels'.
Although President Trump announced the 'immediate removal' of the US naval blockade, he later clarified it would remain until the deal with Iran is formally signed. Satellite imagery from June 15 showed four US warships near the American blockade line. Ship captains, owners, and insurers are preparing, but a 'wait-and-see' mentality prevails, with few willing to be the first to risk transit.
Michelle Wiese Bockman, a senior analyst at Windward Maritime Intelligence, recalled an incident in early April when Iran's foreign minister declared the strait open, only for authorities to close it again the next day, forcing over 33 vessels to reverse course and some to report being fired upon. This history contributes to the current hesitancy.
2. The Threat of Sea Mines
Early in the conflict, Iran threatened to deploy various types of sea mines if its coastline or islands were attacked. Warnings from the multinational Joint Maritime Information Center and Oman's Maritime Security Centre have since been issued regarding suspected 'floating' objects. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also stated that Iran had 'mined large segments of Hormuz.'
Clearing these mines is considered a crucial first step for the return of normal maritime traffic, according to Arsenio Dominguez, secretary general of the International Maritime Organization. Experts estimate the mine-clearing process could take anywhere from 30 days to six months, with significant uncertainty surrounding the timeline.
Mine-hunting efforts are expected to focus on the main route through the strait, with the southern route near Oman believed to be largely clear. Minesweepers will need to operate at very slow speeds to survey the underwater environment and then clear a sufficiently wide channel for simultaneous inbound and outbound traffic. The UK and France have dispatched naval vessels to the region in anticipation of potential mine-clearing operations, with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer pledging full support.
3. Disputes Over Tolls and Fees
Historically, vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz without payment, as it is a natural waterway. While neither the US nor Iran are signatories to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the US maintains that free passage is customary international law.
During the conflict, Iran sought to assert sovereignty over the strait by establishing the 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority,' intended to manage 'safe passage permits.' The US and its Gulf allies have consistently rejected these attempts. Although President Trump announced the strait would open 'toll free,' Iran's Fars news agency reported that the new deal might involve Iran managing the strait in coordination with Oman, potentially including 'service fees' for transit.
The introduction of any new payment system would create additional logistical challenges, raising questions about enforcement, collection methods, and the reactions of other Gulf countries. While some answers may emerge during the post-deal negotiation period, experts like Dimitris Ampatzidis from Kpler suggest that commercial shipping will likely normalize gradually, even if political and security issues are resolved quickly.
Source: Three reasons ships are not going through the Strait of Hormuz yet