Temporary Cool Down Expected for Saturday
Following a period where temperatures in some parts of the UK surpassed 30°C (86°F) on Friday, Saturday is anticipated to bring a brief period of cooler weather. Fresh air from the west is expected to reduce temperatures across the country. While much of the UK will experience dry conditions with sunny spells and a low chance of isolated showers, south-east England may still see highs of 27-28°C (81-82°F).
Heatwave Declaration Potential and Regional Variations
For a heatwave to be officially declared, temperatures must exceed a specific threshold, which ranges from 25-28°C (77-82°F) depending on the region, for three consecutive days. Certain areas in south-east England have already recorded two days above this threshold. Should Saturday's temperatures meet or exceed this limit, a heatwave could be declared in those specific locations. However, there is a possibility that maximum temperatures might fall just short of these criteria.
Conversely, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales, along with northern and western England, are forecast to be considerably cooler, with afternoon highs expected to range between 16-24°C (61-75°F).
Temperatures Set to Climb Again on Sunday
Regardless of whether an official heatwave is declared on Saturday, temperatures are projected to increase once more on Sunday. Most regions can expect sunny periods, with temperatures potentially reaching 27-31°C (81-88°F) in parts of the Midlands, Wales, and southern England. Northern England could see highs of 23-24°C (73-75°F), while much of Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to be around 20-22°C (68-72°F), excluding the far north. High UV and pollen levels are also anticipated across many areas.
Extreme Heat Warning for Monday and Tuesday
An amber extreme heat warning issued by the Met Office will come into effect from 01:00 BST on Monday, covering much of southern and eastern England and parts of south Wales. This warning remains active until 23:59 on Tuesday, with temperatures in south-east England potentially peaking at 34-35°C (93-95°F). It is highly likely that an official heatwave will be declared in several areas during this period.
This marks only the sixth amber extreme heat warning issued by the Met Office since their introduction in 2021.
Overnight temperatures in some locations are expected to stay above 20°C (68°F), leading to 'tropical nights'. The combination of intense daytime heat and warm nights is likely to impact individuals and infrastructure. Health risks are elevated, particularly for the elderly and vulnerable populations, though even younger, healthier individuals could face conditions such as sunstroke and heat exhaustion. Potential disruptions to travel networks and power supplies are also a concern. Additionally, there is a possibility of scattered, intense thunderstorms, especially in parts of England and Wales, which could introduce further hazards.
Extended Heat and Climate Change Context
Some forecasts suggest that temperatures could remain around 30°C for at least seven consecutive days in certain areas, with potential increases back into the mid-30s, though some uncertainty exists. This current hot spell follows a record-breaking May, which saw the UK's warmest May day on record.
The Met Office highlights that heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense globally, a trend attributed to human-induced climate change. Scientists project that such hot spells will become more common, particularly in the south-east of the UK, asserting that it is "virtually certain that human influence has increased the occurrence and severity of extreme heat events." The developing El Niño phenomenon is not considered a factor in this current hot spell, with its peak effects expected later in the year and extending into 2027.
Source: Cooler Saturday gives brief relief before heat returns